WP5: Development of simulation and prediction tools

Participants in WP5.

In WP5 simulation models are developed to analyse how changes in supply and demand affect production planning, economic performance, supply chain relationships, value added, potential product success, market trends and developments and thus competitiveness as measured by the updated FACI developed in WP1. Simulations of “boom and bust” cycles will be carried out and common traits highlighted that facilitate the development of prediction models. Building on work undertaken in WP4, a set of product success indicators will be established designed to indicate probability of successful launches on a targeted seafood market. The outcome of this WP will be simulation/forecasting models for analysing changes in competitiveness, prediction of instability of demand and supply including that of warning signs for “boom and bust” cycles and for indication of potential for product innovation success (SO5).

Expected Results User How is it used How made available
Simulation and forecasting models for predicting instability in demand and supply including tools for outlining warning signs for “boom & boost” cycles Fishermen, processors, sales and marketing professionals and stakeholders in value chain including policy maker on EU and national level Models will be used for analyzing competitiveness and strategic decision making – DSS in WP6 Communication via website, e-newsletter and infographics about major project findings

The Work package Objectives are:

  • To apply the Fisheries and Aquaculture Competitive Index (FACI)
  • To develop simulation and prediction models
  • To develop value-chain positioning models
  • To analyse the likelihood of launching successfully innovative seafood products
  • To evaluate seafood consumers’ willingness to pay for new products


Main Tasks Deliverables
  1. Development of Fisheries and Aquaculture Competitiveness Index (FACI).
  2. Strategic positioning model.
  3. Success analysis model.
  4. Innovation and price analysis model.
  • Fisheries and Aquaculture Competitiveness Index (FACI)
  • “Boom-and-bust” model
  • Strategic positioning model
  • Demand analysis model